The Odds Are Even Higher: Solana (SOL) ETF Listing in the US
As we approach a new year, the cryptocurrency market is abuzz with predictions and forecasts. One of the most interesting and closely watched developments is the potential listing of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, the odds of this happening are even higher than some optimistic betting market forecasts.
Polymarket’s Forecast: 77% Chance of a US Solana ETF Listing
On January 1st, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket released its forecast for the likelihood of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025. The numbers were impressive, with an estimated 77% chance of such an event taking place. However, Sigel believes that this forecast is "underpriced." In a post on the X platform, he explained why he thinks the odds are even higher.
Industry Expectations: More Crypto ETF Listings in the US
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. As we discussed earlier, Trump has expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital." This sentiment has sparked hopes among investors and asset managers that regulatory hurdles will be eased, paving the way for new listings.
How Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events. These contracts are priced dynamically based on expected outcomes, with prices fluctuating as more information becomes available. Polymarket’s forecast is an example of this process in action. Initially, the platform estimated a 77% chance of a US Solana ETF listing. However, by January 2nd, this number had increased to approximately 84%, reflecting growing optimism among investors.
VanEck and 21Shares’ Plans for a Spot Solana ETF
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares submitted applications to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list spot Solana ETFs. However, their plans were reportedly challenged by the SEC in August, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity. This distinction is crucial, as it may impact the structure of any proposed ETF.
The Role of Grantor Trust Structure
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs are currently the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges. These funds use an atypical "grantor trust" structure, which is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Issuers believe that success may depend on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to this structure.
Industry Analysts’ Predictions: Half a Dozen Proposed Crypto ETFs
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. Sigel has reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high." This sentiment is echoed by investors and analysts who believe that Trump’s victory will lead to increased market confidence and a more favorable regulatory environment.
Polymarket: The Most Popular Cryptocurrency Betting Platform
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, with nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone. According to data from Dune Analytics, this number reflects the growing interest in cryptocurrency markets among retail investors. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Bullish Bettors: Expecting a Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets. They expect BTC and ETH to hit all-time highs, while several new types of crypto ETFs list in the US. This optimism is reflected in Polymarket’s increasing forecast numbers, which suggest a high likelihood of a Solana ETF listing.
Conclusion
As we look ahead to 2025, it seems that the odds are even higher for a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the US. With growing optimism among investors and industry analysts, the potential for new listings is becoming increasingly plausible. As the regulatory environment continues to evolve, it will be fascinating to watch how this story unfolds.
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